Future dry-wet climatic characteristics and drought trends over arid Central Asia

Understanding the future drought condition is critical to coping with challenge of climate change. This study evaluated simulation capability 30 Global Climate Models (GCMs) provided by Coupled Model InterComparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET) and temperature (T) arid Central Asia (ACA), estimated dry-wet climatic characteristics trends under four SSP-RCPs (Shared Socio-economic Path-Representative Concentration Path scenarios, SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585). Results show that CMIP6 GCMs have robust ability for precipitation, evapotranspiration, ( p < 0.01) over Asia. The delta-corrected multi-model ensemble mean (Delta-MME) outperforms GWR-corrected one (GWR-MME) single models. In future, will increase at different rates SSP-RCPs. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan are regions faster rise, northern main area rapid growth evapotranspiration. Arid face more severe drought, especially high emission scenarios. near-term reduce a certain extent, but trend still be prominent mid long term. Overall, an overall characteristic decreasing number increasing frequency, duration, intensity. Drought risk likely higher Xinjiang China, Turkmenistan Uzbekistan. research can provide scientific basis decision-making water resources planning management socio-economic development